Post-Crisis Regionalisation of Global Value Chains in Strategies of Transnational Companies

The current global crisis led to the transformation of global value chains (GVC) in strategies of transnational companies (TNCs). The present study aims to establish a causal relationship between the volatility of the world economy and regionalisation of global value chains. Based on historical analysis and a systemic-functional approach, scattered information about the impact of global value chains on the development of TNC strategies was integrated. Thus, various aspects of TNC activities (their participation in international trade, international capital flows, etc.) were analysed together in order to identify the consequences of regionalisation for the strategic development of such companies. The study revealed that the established international production system carries many risks, which are exacerbated by continuing protectionism in international trade. Under the influence of digitalisation, regionalisation of value chains and partial reshoring of production facilities are the key directions for further development of GVCs. Given the rapid cross-border transmission of exogenous shocks, the stability and sustainability of global value chains will determine their development;however, there is no evidence whether GVCs will lengthen or shorten. The high cost of the complex reconfiguration of GVCs towards regionalisation will lead to only minor changes in their architecture. The redesign will affect only some aspects of activities, in particular, the organisation of work with global suppliers. While the weak integration of developing countries into GVCs will remain, the barriers to internationalisation will be reduced under the influence of digitalisation, creating new opportunities for the incorporation of small business into the international production system. In general, global value chains will still be considered a reliable source to reduce the risks of global operating activities of TNCs. The research results can be used for further theoretical and methodological development of internationalisation strategies. © 2022 Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Instability of international trade and approaches to optimal regulation

International trade regulation is viewed as a key function of managing the flow of goods and services in international exchange. The study analyses the primary challenges in the development and regulation of global trade and establishes the avenues for counteracting structural distortions and imbalances in international exchange. The methodological framework of the research includes the concept of foreign economic activity management and international trade theory. Analysis, synthesis, as well as historical and logical methods were used. The empirical base covers data from world trade statistics in the context of bilateral trade flows between key countries participating in international exchange. The authors propose their own methodology which is based on a descriptive assessment of atypical changes in international trade and stress factors in its development under the influence of the crisis, and takes into account the reliability of participants in international exchange. We prove that economic globalization has a decisive effect on the formation of imbalances and risks of a rise in protectionism in cross border trade. As shown in the research, the COVID-19 pandemic has exerted a special influence on export-oriented countries and global supply chains, which makes the impact of the current crisis on international exchange unprecedentedly inclusive. The current rapid recovery of global trade does not imply it being sustainable in the medium and long term, since foreign trade regulation in the key countries remains uncertain and strained. The progress of world trade multilateral regulation was virtually destroyed, as evidenced by the resumption of the discriminatory measures practice between countries. Strategies for managing the crossborder movement of goods will depend on the depth and effectiveness of mega-regional trade agreements, as well as on the rebalancing of trade between the leading players -the United States and China.

Global Foreign Direct Investment: Structural Changes in the Current Crisis

The current crisis, as well as complicated economic relations between countries, sustainable development risks of global value chains (GVCs), and international trade protectionism cause changes in the modern system of global foreign direct investment (FDI). Due to the complexity of these risks and the vulnerability of the world economy to future global recessions, it is necessary to develop a new concept of cross-border capital flows in the form of FDI. The research aims to identify structural changes in global FDI in the context of international trade and capital market challenges. Structural and dynamic analysis and a descriptive assessment were conducted to examine global foreign direct investment in the system of international capital movement, taking into account the unstable economic environment. A test of the impact of the current coronavirus crisis revealed that the retrospective transformation of global FDI occurred due to changes in the internationalisation of companies, cross-border mergers and acquisitions, and regional structure of FDI. Corporate disinvestment and the growing importance of intangible assets also played an important role. As a result, the slowdown in global FDI led to a decline in reinvested earnings in many economic sectors. As the long-term recovery of the world economy will be largely determined by the dynamics of global FDI, transnational companies (TNCs) should consider local crises and strive to geographically distribute capital investment. The research revealed that the differentiation of national GVC strategies and new approaches to foreign outsourcing of TNCs are the main risks of regionalisation or nationalisation of global value chains and a corresponding decrease in FDI. The findings can be used to modify well-known FDI concepts, taking into account their impact on modern international economic relations.

Post-Pandemic Recovery of the Global Economy

As the coronavirus pandemic continues to spread, the degree of its negative impact on the development of economic systems throughout the world economy increases. At the same time, the issues of the future world order and the restoration of the global economy are becoming more and more uncertain. The purpose of our study was to review the conceptual and practical approaches to substantiating the possibilities of postcrisis recovery of the global economy in the context of the continuing negative impact of the pandemic on international trade, capital flows and the development of the world financial system. The article reviews the materials of international economic organizations to assess the longterm economic consequences of the pandemic. The analysis shows that the main problem in assessing the possibilities for the recovery of the world economy is the existing heterogeneity in the degree of the pandemic's impact on individual sectors and economies of countries, as well as the differentiation and inconsistency of the applied economic policy instruments. In addition, it was found that the world retains a high potential for financial instability, and "vaccine nationalism" is getting worse. The main contradiction is the transboundary nature of the challenges to further economic development with a significant slowdown in globalization pro-cesses. The author considers the current pandemic to be one of the new global problems of the world economy, since its recovery in the current conditions is of an indefinite spasmodic nature, and there are also risks of a permanent slowdown in economic mobility. The solution to the key problem of economic growth - increasing productivity - is possible only with a clear understanding and planning of progress with inclusive vaccination, which is so far elusive. Although shortterm economic policy is a priority for governments, a wellcoordinated international agenda is needed at the global level to ensure the transition from income support to stimulating economic growth, as well as to overcome the existing structural imbalances and distortions in the system of economic relations between countries.